" . . . betting on ‘political risk securities’. In the early 2000s, the Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the US Department of Defence devised the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), on the model of the Iowa Electronic Markets. Participants would predict future geopolitical developments, such as the date on which the US would withdraw from this or that foreign country. The goal was to see whether the ‘market’ could provide more accurate predictions than other forecasting methods, but when news of the project emerged and critics accused the DoD of selling ‘terrorism futures’, the programme was cancelled. That didn’t stop some private sector actors getting into the business: in 2003, the Irish betting platform TradeSports.com opened a market in what became known as the ‘Saddam security’, a wager on the date by which the US would have removed Saddam Hussein from power. On 1 February, the ‘June Saddam’ was trading at about 80, meaning 80 per cent of the total bets that Saddam would fall before the end of June were on ‘Yes’ . . . "
Cypherpunks collapse governments.
Subject: Everyone a remailer: Everyone a Mint: Everyone an assassin
https://marc.info/?l=cypherpunks&m=100872510706876&w=2
Strong-crypto, digital money, anonymous networks, pseudonyms, zero- knowledge proofs, reputations, information-markets, netwar, collapse-of-governments
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