MOST WANTED FUGITIVE

 Rogue AI to act outside of that market. For example, a currently popular view of proposition bets, the "prediction markets" view, often treats prop bets or idea futures as purely information-distribution mechanisms, with the only incentives supposed as the benign incentive to profit by adding useful information to the market. 

This fails to take into account the incentives such markets create to act differently outside the market.  A "prediction market" is always also one that changes incentives outside that market: a prediction market automatically creates parallel incentives to bring about the predicted event. 

For example a prediction market on a certain person's death is also an assassination market. Which is why a pre-Gulf-War-II DARPA-sponsored experimental "prediction market" included a prop bet on Saddam Hussein's death, but excluded such trading on any other, more politically correct world leaders. A sufficiently large market predicting an individual's death is also, necessarily, an assassination market, and similarly other "prediction" markets are also act markets, changing incentives to act outside that market to bring about the predicted events.

Prediction markets—exchanges where users can bet on not just sports but politics, the weather, even words Trump might say in his next public address—occupy a strange position in American life right now. They are simultaneously the most exciting thing in finance and the most wanted fugitive by state gambling regulators and legislators. Platforms like Polymarket have exploded in the past two years, attracting billions of dollars in investment, partnerships with the New York Stock Exchange and CNBC, and enough trading volume to make their odds a fixture of cable news chyrons. They have also attracted the ire of attorneys general in thirty-eight states, a criminal indictment in Arizona, and a cascade of cease-and-desist orders from Nevada to Connecticut—all arguing that whatever these companies want to call themselves, what they’re actually running is a sportsbook without a license.

The CEOs of both Polymarket and its largest competitor, Kalshi, have argued that their product isn’t even gambling, let alone a sportsbook. Instead, the companies seem to be positioning themselves as something more similar to financial instruments that offer users a way to hedge risk.  Like APster

" I think people will want to buy freedom on the net " -  Jim Bell