Thursday, July 2, 2026

Fear of a blackened planet

 Prediction markets surge to nearly 5% of crypto spot exchange volume

The rapid growth of prediction markets highlights their potential to reshape financial speculation, though bloody liquidity challenges may hinder broader adoption. ...

From MUCKRACK

The way Ty Schalter sees it, “the best time to ban ‘‘prediction markets’ like @Polymarket and @Kalshi was before they started operating in the u.s. the second-best time is now.” Schalter links to Kylie Mohr’s latest piece for High Country News, “People are betting on wildfires. Should they?” (They should not.)

For starters, are they incentivizing arson? “Imagine what a bad actor might do,” said Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “A market that might support that kind of activity, I think, is a dangerous market.” 

Not to mention, Skeet says, “When you start gambling on somebody’s potential death or harm, you’re really diminishing the value that you’re placing on human life.” As Bethany Brookshire‬ says, “We often talk about gambling in terms of disease and addiction, and it can be an addiction. But this? This? I think I feel pretty ok calling this kind of betting straight up evil.”

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