Risk anticipation for winners

 Since chance favors the prepared mind

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2003/07/save-the-pentagon-futures-market.html

Risk anticipation for losers is called " Red Teaming " and is hierarchical and central.

. Let’s admit there’s something ghoulish about betting on an assassination attempt. But let’s also admit that U.S. government analysts ask themselves every day the exact same questions that PAM traders would have been asking: How stable is the government of Jordan? How likely is it the House of Saud will fall? Will Mahmoud Abbas still be head of the P.A. in 2004? How many more casualties will the United States take in Iraq? If it isn’t immoral for the U.S. government to be asking these questions, it’s hard to see how it’s immoral for people outside the U.S. government to ask them. Especially since the point of having traders ask the questions was to gather information to prevent catastrophes from happening.

Perhaps what’s immoral, though, is that PAM would allow people to make money from predicting catastrophe. But CIA analysts don’t volunteer their services. We pay them to predict catastrophes. Is that morally wrong? We also pay informants—like the guy who turned in Odai and Qusai—for valuable information. Again, are we wrong to do so?