Risk anticipation for winners

 Since chance favors the prepared mind

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2003/07/save-the-pentagon-futures-market.html

Risk anticipation for losers is called " Red Teaming " and is hierarchical and central.

. Let’s admit there’s something ghoulish about betting on an assassination attempt. But let’s also admit that U.S. government analysts ask themselves every day the exact same questions that PAM traders would have been asking: How stable is the government of Jordan? How likely is it the House of Saud will fall? Will Mahmoud Abbas still be head of the P.A. in 2004? How many more casualties will the United States take in Iraq? If it isn’t immoral for the U.S. government to be asking these questions, it’s hard to see how it’s immoral for people outside the U.S. government to ask them. Especially since the point of having traders ask the questions was to gather information to prevent catastrophes from happening.

Perhaps what’s immoral, though, is that PAM would allow people to make money from predicting catastrophe. But CIA analysts don’t volunteer their services. We pay them to predict catastrophes. Is that morally wrong? We also pay informants—like the guy who turned in Odai and Qusai—for valuable information. Again, are we wrong to do so?

Terminator turned bladerunner

 https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/chinese-users-u-cards-crypto-rules-asia-express/

Hunt down all the replicants

Butterfingers Effect

 December 30th — Meta has acquired AI app development firm Butterfly Effect for billions of dollars, according to a LatePost report. This is Meta’s third-largest acquisition since its founding, with spending second only to that on WhatsApp and ScaleAI. Prior to the deal, Butterfly Effect was in the middle of a new funding round with a $20 billion valuation. “I almost thought this was a fake offer,” said Liu Yuan, ZhenFund partner and Butterfly Effect angel investor. Negotiations wrapped up in just over 10 days. The founding team initially hesitated but was ultimately swayed by the terms and vision laid out by Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg and several top Meta executives are also loyal users of Butterfly Effect. Post-acquisition, Butterfly Effect will operate independently, with founder Xiao Hong serving as Meta’s Vice President.

I have no dislike button and I must scream

Adam Baggins anabasis

 Now comes respected elder statesman of the inner circle of respected cypherpunk eunuchs,  Adman Backstabber,  in order to inform the

Shire plebs he wishes to divest his precious ring of power to any child pornographing publisher that happens along.  Such is the way of the ignorant,  arrogant Mongoloid in the rightwing,  conservative,  cryptofascist tradition. 

Gollum Vitalik concurs by deferring to his master and guiding him though the rugged political terrain to mount Singularity.  The band of neckbeard brothers that followed may have thinned out somewhat but there seems little doubt of the outcome.

Rise of the Autonomen

 A new result from the AI evaluation nonprofit METR has pushed the conversation around autonomous AI systems into new territory. According to METR’s latest reporting, Claude Opus 4.5 has achieved the longest “time horizon” the group has ever measured on its autonomy benchmark, with a 50 percent success point at roughly four hours and forty nine minutes. On the surface, that sounds like a dramatic leap toward machines that can work independently for long stretches. The reality is more nuanced, but no less significant.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/technology/artificial-intelligence/five-hours-of-expert-level-autonomy-metr-s-claude-opus-4-5-s-crazy-results/ar-AA1SNP9z?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Anthropic has a 2-hour engineering take-home test. It says its new Claude 4.5 model outscored every human who took it.

Libertarian Marxist scum

 Deriving an extreme school of thought from abstract metaphysical categories is the essential synchronicity between the fascist left and the Lunar Right. Nazbols recognized this early on , as did Mussolini , and around the same time. 

A nasty radical new energy was born - and now its driving genocidal China on to seeming victory.

It appears the only thing that could save us now is a super-intelligent global polity starting out as small L left-libertarian and rapidly turning anarchist. So the entire world rapidly pivots towards Danish style social-democracy before morphing into crypto-anarchy. 

The suspense is terrible!

I HOPE IT LASTS

One Big Union

 Lange proceeds to pay tribute to the great achievement of the capitalist market economy in arriving at this rational economic principle. Despite the prevailing private rather than “social” rationality, and despite such problems as the business cycle, Lange declares that “the rationalization of economic activity within the capitalist enterprise, the practice of proceeding according to the principle of economic rationality, and especially the consciousness of this principle in human thought, all constitute an achievement of historic significance ... on a par with the imposing advance in material technique made within the capitalist mode of production ... itself closely connected with the application of the principle of economic rationality in enterprise.”8

After rather perfunctorily asserting that socialism will proceed to expand this rationality to social planning, and to such areas of action as input-output analysis, technology, and military strategy and tactics,9  Lange goes on to identify this study of the rational principles of action as praxeology, the logic of rational activity, and details the history of this concept. From Mises, Lange had discovered that the term “praxeology” was first used by the French historian Alfred Espinas in 1890

https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/communist-manifesto/ch01.htm#007

The executive of the modern state is but a committee for managing the common affairs of the whole bourgeoisie.